Retail Buyers Are Playing Offense This Holiday Season — With AI, Early Orders, and Smarter Sourcing

Buyers Aren’t Waiting for the Holidays to Make Their Moves

The 2025 holiday shopping season may feel months away, but for retail buyers, it’s already in full swing. A new survey from Deloitte shows that more than half of this year’s holiday orders were locked in by the end of May, a full two months ahead of last year’s pace.

This isn’t just about getting a head start. Buyers are responding to an environment where trade policy is in flux, consumer sentiment is softening, and supplier reliability is no longer a given. Many retailers are acting early because the cost of inaction feels even higher.

Tariffs, Trade, and the Return of Global Risk

According to Deloitte’s 2025 Retail Holiday Buyer Survey, 78% of buyers say they’re using artificial intelligence to improve decision-making, and nearly three-quarters are applying that technology specifically to help navigate ongoing changes in U.S. trade policy.

Since late spring, shifting tariff announcements have kept teams on edge. One in five retail buyers surveyed say they’ve delayed some shipments while waiting for more clarity. Nearly as many have already canceled orders they determined would be unprofitable in the current environment.

And this is just one layer of the challenge. Supplier consistency is also a concern, with 76% of respondents expressing doubts about whether vendors will be able to deliver as expected.

New Suppliers and New Strategies

Buyers aren’t just placing orders earlier. Nearly half say they’re actively sourcing from new vendors this year. The shift is both strategic and defensive. Retailers including Target, Best Buy, and Warby Parker have all recently acknowledged efforts to diversify their supplier bases, particularly by reducing dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

Some buyers are also negotiating harder with current partners. Others are looking at domestic suppliers for the first time in years. In every case, the goal is the same: reduce exposure, increase control, and avoid surprises in the fourth quarter.

Promotions Will Still Decide the Season

Even with early orders and supply chain shifts, one thing hasn’t changed. Promotions will play a central role in driving discretionary spending. Deloitte found that 76% of buyers expect consumers to time purchases around holiday deals. That aligns with a July forecast from Inmar Intelligence, which reported that more than 80% of U.S. consumers plan to cut back on essentials like groceries in order to afford holiday gifts.

That kind of tradeoff suggests holiday demand will be strong—but fragile. If prices or timing aren’t right, many shoppers may simply opt out or spend less. Promotions will need to be sharp, well-timed, and backed by inventory that’s already in place.

Final Thoughts

This holiday season is being shaped earlier, faster, and more strategically than in years past. Retail buyers are no longer just reacting to market changes. They’re using technology to plan ahead, strengthening their sourcing networks, and placing bets before the rest of the industry catches up.

It’s not just about surviving the holidays anymore. It’s about staying ahead of them.

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