Promotions Will Decide Holiday Foot Traffic in 2025

What the Data Says About a Tougher Setup

New findings from Placer.ai’s Winning Holiday Shoppers in 2025 report show year-over-year declines in store visits through much of the summer, with September down 2.7 percent. The report highlights the ongoing strain on household budgets and the drag of tariffs on discretionary spending, suggesting that this year’s holiday traffic will rely heavily on targeted promotions that rekindle demand. It also notes a widening retail divide, as luxury and off-price apparel retailers gain visitors while mid-tier department stores and traditional apparel chains continue to lose ground.

Broader forecasts echo this cautious picture. The National Retail Federation expects U.S. holiday sales to exceed one trillion dollars for the first time, up between 3.7 and 4.2 percent from last year. Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts a 3.6 percent gain through December 24, with stronger growth online and modest improvement in stores. Adobe Analytics projects more than 250 billion dollars in U.S. online holiday sales. Taken together, these forecasts point to steady demand, but one that must be earned through sharp pricing, timing, and reliable availability.

Why Timing Matters More Than Usual

Last year’s compressed shopping window shortened the core holiday season between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Retailers that began their promotions earlier, in October and early November, were able to offset much of the traffic lost later in the season. Placer.ai expects the same dynamic this year, meaning that early momentum will be key again. Shoppers who are wary of shipping delays are likely to buy earlier and in person when they see products available on the shelf.

Winning this year’s season will depend on pacing. Broad savings messages can begin in October, followed by focused category deals in early November, and capped off with gift-specific offers as the holidays approach. That rhythm aligns with how traffic and purchasing have shifted in recent years, rewarding those who start early and sustain engagement throughout December.

The Retail Divide That Will Shape Creative and Media

According to Placer.ai, not every retailer is facing the same conditions. Luxury department stores and off-price apparel chains have increased visits, while mid-tier department stores and traditional apparel chains have seen declines. Home furnishings has quietly improved, helped by consumers opting for small décor updates instead of full-scale renovations. The takeaway is that promotions must fit each shopper segment, from value seekers to prestige buyers.

Income data underscores this divide. Luxury traffic skews wealthier as the season peaks in December, while off-price stores see more price-sensitive shoppers at that same time. Marketers should adapt their strategies accordingly. For luxury retailers, exclusivity and limited-edition offerings resonate. For off-price retailers, frequency and visible value remain the strongest levers to drive repeat trips.

Two Categories With Real Momentum

Beauty and electronics retailers stand out as the most promising categories for growth this holiday season. Beauty has shown consistent traffic spikes during promotional periods like Black Friday and Mother’s Day, while electronics retailers have recently stabilized after a year of slower visits. As replacement cycles begin for televisions and laptops purchased during the pandemic, consumers may be more willing to upgrade if presented with a strong value proposition.

Audience composition also shifts as the holidays approach. Electronics shoppers increasingly include married homeowners, suggesting that campaigns built around family entertainment or home upgrades will perform best. Beauty retailers, which usually attract young professionals, see more affluent suburban families in December. Gift bundles, premium sets, and convenience-focused packaging will likely appeal to this audience.

Building Promotions That Drive Store Visits

Effective promotions this year must be designed to earn physical visits, not just online clicks. Online discovery can complement in-store exclusives, same-day pickup, and localized availability. The combination of convenience and immediacy gives shoppers confidence to buy early.

Retailers should also sequence their promotions intentionally. Use early October to establish urgency, focus November on hero categories, and reserve unique deals for the final days before Christmas. This approach maximizes trip frequency by spreading incentives across the entire season rather than concentrating them in one week.

Scarcity and transparency can build trust. When inventory is tight, communicate it clearly and offer strong substitutes. Shoppers who believe they can still find what they want are more likely to visit in person. Pop culture collaborations can also be powerful traffic drivers. According to Placer.ai, creative launches and co-branded releases have successfully drawn new visitors this year.

Finally, protect margins by pairing discounts with in-store redemption requirements or bundle thresholds. Beauty gift sets, electronics protection plans, and home décor kits with complementary items can improve profitability without reducing perceived value.

Media and Measurement for a Condensed Season

Retailers should shift media budgets toward local activation early in the season. Focus spending in the trade areas surrounding high-performing stores and use dayparting to reach consumers when they are planning trips. Placer.ai’s data shows that early promotions can offset a shorter core season, making local targeting even more valuable.

Messaging should also reflect changing audiences. Electronics campaigns can prioritize married homeowners by December, while beauty campaigns can speak to affluent suburban families. Off-price retailers should broaden reach to value-driven consumers entering the category later in the season.

Measurement strategies need to distinguish between visits and sales. Track trip frequency in October and November as a leading indicator, then connect to point-of-sale data during December. This helps retailers identify whether traffic gains are translating to actual purchases and avoid misreading larger baskets as stronger footfall.

In-Store Execution Still Matters

Promotions will only be as effective as the store experience behind them. Featured products must be easy to find and well stocked. Clear endcaps, secondary placements for substitute items, and streamlined checkout all reinforce the promise made in advertising. Electronics retailers can prepare by staging high-demand items for quick pickup. Beauty retailers can organize gift sets with visible price steps and clear giftable signage.

Execution, however, is not just about presentation; it is about precision. Many retailers are now using real-time task management and computer vision tools to ensure promotional displays are set correctly and inventory gaps are flagged immediately. These systems, combined with foot traffic analytics like Placer.ai’s, allow store teams to focus on the locations and categories where execution will have the greatest impact. The same data can feed performance dashboards that show marketers how promotional messaging translates to store visits and sales, closing the loop between planning and results.

Associate readiness is another key factor. Even the strongest campaign will fall flat if store teams are unprepared to answer questions, cross-sell, or manage surge periods. Brands that invest in quick digital training modules or mobile job aids during the holidays tend to capture more upsell opportunities and maintain a better customer experience during peak traffic.

Implications for Retail Partners

For brands and suppliers, this year’s retail climate calls for close coordination with merchant and marketing teams. Joint business plans should include early promotional alignment, especially for campaigns launching before Black Friday. Retailers will be looking for partners who can move fast, fund targeted offers, and share data that supports mutually profitable promotions.

Suppliers can also use Placer.ai insights and retailer foot traffic data to identify the most effective store clusters for cooperative marketing. By linking local promotions to stores with the highest visit potential, partners can stretch their budgets further and demonstrate a clear return on investment. Early collaboration on content creation and in-store storytelling will ensure consistency between the digital offer and the shopper’s real-world experience.

Looking Ahead

Holiday 2025 will test how well retailers and their partners can combine timing, insight, and flawless execution. Consumers still plan to spend, but they will be selective about when, where, and how. The most successful brands will meet them early, make the value unmistakable, and deliver on every promise once they walk through the door.

The retailers who treat timing as strategy, not luck, will win this season. The ones who see every visit as something to be earned, not assumed, will win every season after.

Conversations On Retail

Conversations On Retail is a gathering place and resource center for retail and CPG executives, built to make it easier to stay current, discover the technologies and solutions shaping the industry, and connect with the people driving it forward.

We publish news, views, and reviews from staff editors, contributing experts, and trusted partners. Some articles are developed internally, while others are submitted by industry contributors or adapted from interviews and recorded conversations with industry leaders.